The tournament coin-flip is one of the situations regular tournament players dread. It represents a point in the game when their skill no longer matters, one where Lady Luck takes over and decides whether to let one live or not. No good poker player likes the tournament coin-flip, regardless of how macho one tries to be about it. Mike McDonald (Timex)’s is an edifying example in this sense. The young poker genius decided to take a break from poker, on account of having grown disillusioned with the game. One of the reasons that he mentioned regarding his decision was that tournament poker had grown increasingly luck dependent because of the numerous coin-flips players were forced to take in the later stages. Coin-flips are indeed an integral part of poker tournaments. If you ever won a poker tournament in your life, looking back at it objectively, you’ll realize you’d most probably gotten away with more than a handful of such coin-flips.
By definition, a coin-flip is a 50-50 odds situation, in which the outcome is entirely dependent on luck, in the case of poker: on the board. An example of a poker coin-flip would be to have your Q,Q going up against an A,K. You already have a made hand but your opponent has six outs to beat you, which means the odds are by and large even. Knowing that, it is weird to talk about the use of strategy to better your coin-flip odds. Weirdly enough: it can be done too.
First of all, you need to make sure the coin-flip you’re about to take is a coin-flip indeed. While in poker the odds are rarely exactly 50-50 on coin-flips, a 45-55% match-up will still pretty much count as one. A 30-70% match-up not so much though. Just because you believe you’re about to get yourself into a coin-flip, doesn’t mean that you do too. If your 7,7 goes up against your opponent’s A,A, that there’s not much of a coin-flip. In order to know that you’re about to take a coin-flip for your tournament life, you need to need to have a solid read on the opponent you’re up against. All this has little to do with altering the odds involved though. For that, you’ll have to take the initiative in the hand. In other words: you need to be the aggressor. Being aggressive generally pays in poker. If you’re aggressive, you create a natural advantage over your opponents, and here’s how that advantage works in the case of the coin-flip: by making the shove instead of making the call, you’ll have your opponent faced with a critical decision. As they would say in NBA playoff terms: you defend home court and you place the pressure onto your opponent. He may decide the make the call, but he may decide to fold too. By being aggressive, you’ve basically opened up two ways to win the hand: by winning the coin-flip, or by forcing your opponent to fold.
Now put yourself in his shoes: the pressure’s on you, and you have to make the decision. If you decide to call, you will have to win the coin-flip, there are no other way for you to win the hand. The advantage that you secure by being the aggressor in the above described situation is known as the fold equity.
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